The vote is in
For months, one question has been hanging over a lot of conversations I've had with clients: "Should we wait until after the referendum?"
Well, we have our answer. On October 19, about 75% of Albertans voted to remain in Canada, and the Premier has said there won't be a second referendum vote while she's in office. (Official results are confirmed by Elections Alberta on October 29.)
However you voted, here's what matters for your home: one of the biggest question marks of the year is now off the table. So what does that actually change for Calgary real estate? Less than the headlines suggested, but maybe more than you'd think for anyone who has been sitting on the fence.
The vote wasn't driving prices
If you've noticed Calgary's market cooling this year, it's tempting to blame politics. The numbers tell a different story.
CREB's chief economist said this summer that the price declines we've been seeing are not connected to the referendum. The real story is supply. A lot of new condos and townhomes have come onto the market, and that's where prices have softened most.
Here's how September looked compared to last year:
Detached and semi-detached homes have held their value well. Condos and townhomes have more competition. That's a supply story, not a referendum story.
Where it did matter: the waiting game
Where the referendum likely did have an effect is on timing. Some buyers and sellers simply hit pause until they knew how the vote would turn out. Industry voices across Alberta said the same thing heading into the fall: not a major driver, but a reason for some people to wait.
That makes sense. Buying or selling a home is a big decision, and nobody likes making one with a giant "what if" in the background. With a clear result, that particular "what if" is gone.
If you're buying: This is a good window. Inventory is healthy, especially in condos and townhomes, and fall tends to bring fewer buyers competing for the same home. If you were waiting for the vote, the wait is over, and you may get ahead of others who start looking again in the spring.
If you're selling: Buyers who were holding back may start to come back, which is good news. That said, pricing still matters more than ever, especially for condos and townhomes facing more competition. A realistic price from day one will do more for you than any headline.
If you're not planning a move: Nothing changes overnight, and that's a good thing. Your home's value is driven by the same things as before: supply, jobs, interest rates, and people choosing to move here.
Here's my honest take from being out in the market every day: the referendum just wasn't a big factor for most of my clients. Very few buyers brought it up, and I didn't see anyone hold off on an offer to wait for the results. The 75% result lines up with what I was hearing person to person. Most people never saw separation as a real possibility.
What I'm watching much more closely is interest rates. The Bank of Canada makes its next rate decision on October 28, and after holding steady at 2.25% for a year, a small increase is now looking likely. Several of the big banks now expect a quarter-point bump, though it isn't a sure thing yet.
Where it did matter: the waiting game
Where the referendum likely did have an effect is on timing. Some buyers and sellers simply hit pause until they knew how the vote would turn out. Industry voices across Alberta said the same thing heading into the fall: not a major driver, but a reason for some people to wait.
That makes sense. Buying or selling a home is a big decision, and nobody likes making one with a giant "what if" in the background. With a clear result, that particular "what if" is gone.
What this means for you
If you're buying: This is a good window. Inventory is healthy, especially in condos and townhomes, and fall tends to bring fewer buyers competing for the same home. If you were waiting for the vote, the wait is over, and you may get ahead of others who start looking again in the spring.
If you're selling: Buyers who were holding back may start to come back, which is good news. That said, pricing still matters more than ever, especially for condos and townhomes facing more competition. A realistic price from day one will do more for you than any headline.
If you're not planning a move: Nothing changes overnight, and that's a good thing. Your home's value is driven by the same things as before: supply, jobs, interest rates, and people choosing to move here.
What I'm actually seeing
Here's my honest take from being out in the market every day: the referendum just wasn't a big factor for most of my clients. Very few buyers brought it up, and I didn't see anyone hold off on an offer to wait for the results. The 75% result lines up with what I was hearing person to person. Most people never saw separation as a real possibility.
What I'm watching much more closely is interest rates. The Bank of Canada makes its next rate decision on October 28, and after holding steady at 2.25% for a year, a small increase is now looking likely. Several of the big banks now expect a quarter-point bump, though it isn't a sure thing yet.
If it happens, that could matter more to your monthly budget than anything on Monday's ballot. Variable-rate mortgages and lines of credit would feel it first, and fixed rates tend to rise when markets expect higher rates. If you're planning to buy in the next few months, getting pre-approved now can help lock in today's rate for a set period.
If you're thinking about a move, or just want to know how a rate change could affect your plans, I'm always happy to talk it through.
Talk soon, Lindsay
